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Campaign infrastructure gives Stewart early advantage in chairman's primary
This is the second part of a multi-part series about the Republican primary for Board of County Supervisors chairman. This week's story focuses on politics. Next week's story will focus on policy.
In the Republican primary for Prince William Board of County Supervisors chairman, incumbent Corey Stewart (R) starts off as the heavy favorite to win against the only declared candidate to date, Haymarket Town Council member Bob Weir.
Stewart has a campaign infrastructure advantage Weir is not likely to match, leaving Weir instead to focus on policy differences that he hopes will resonate with the GOP electorate.
There are three major factors in play that make Stewart the favorite: fundraising, name recognition and established base of support. Weir will be counting on earned media (ie: newspaper stories), word of mouth and classic grassroots campaigning in order to get his message out while Stewart will have the financial wherewithal to pay for more media advertisements, mailers and get-out-the-vote operations.
Also, Stewart will gain more earned media than Weir simply from his position as chairman and his interest in running for the U.S. Senate in 2012, which is generating statewide and even national attention. Weir said he would be "happy to debate" Stewart "any time, any place."
Fundraising
Stewart ended 2010 with a warchest of $76,978 according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Between 2008, the first full year for fundraising after his re-election 2007, and the end of 2010, Stewart brought in $217,571 from 88 campaign contributors that donated $100 or more to his various campaign committees. Of that total, $115,100 or 53 percent came from outside of Prince William County or the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park.
Numerically, 50 $100-plus donations came from within the greater Prince William area while 38 came from other places, including 25 from Fairfax County and Fairfax City. His biggest contribution came in 2008 from real estate developer Gainesville Associates LLC of Columbia, Maryland.
The company's $25,000 donation actually went to Stewart's exploratory campaign for lieutenant governor. Such a contribution is transferable and Stewart ultimately transferred $46,537 from his lieutenant governor's campaign committee to the committee for his county chairman.
Real estate and construction interests have donated more to Stewart than any other business sector since 2008, according to VPAP, as their donations to him have totaled $118,454. The next highest industry, finance and insurance, totaled $20,125. Stewart took $40,950 directly from 10 real estate developers. Only the $25,000 from Gainesville Associates went to his lieutenant governor's campaign; the other nine went straight to his chairman's committee.
Weir has just begun fundraising.
"I'm not going to worry about it," said Weir, referring to fundraising. He said that while money makes it "easier to get the issues across," it's not "impossible" to win without it. He then called into question some of Stewart's received donations, singling out two $1,000 donations he received from the auto dealer Malloy between 2008 and 2009.
"Land use is for sale in Prince William County," said Weir. "If you donate to the proper campaigns, you'll get what you want."
However, Weir did not address just how, exactly, he would stay competitive himself on the money front, instead choosing to focus on his disdain for money's influence in politics.
Unless Weir makes a six-figure personal donation toward his own campaign like planning commissioner and Democratic candidate Gary Friedman did, he will potentially be ceding any TV or radio air war to Stewart and is subject to have attacks against him go unanswered outside of media coverage and e-mails to supporters.
Campaigning
A bill being considered this week by the General Assembly would set the primary date for Aug. 23 if it becomes law, which could happen as early as next month. An alternative bill would bump the primary back to September if it passed instead.
In the run-up to that election, both campaigns are slow moving on the Internet. Weir has not launched a professional campaign Web site or Facebook page. Stewart has both but has not updated his Web site since November or his campaign's Facebook page since 2009.
What Stewart does have is county-wide name recognition from his successful chairman campaigns in 2006 and 2007 following his three-year stint as Occoquan District supervisor. Weir's electoral support has yet to be tested outside of Haymarket. In the 2010 council election, the veteran council member received more votes than any other contender for the six available town council seats -- seven candidates ran -- and even more votes than Mayor Pamela Stutz, who ran unopposed.
However, that still only amounted to 89 votes, an almost negligible amount compared to what it will take to win a county-wide race. Over 5,500 county voters participated in the 2007 Republican primary for sheriff, the last time the local GOP nominated a candidate for county-wide office in a primary instead of a convention.
If Weir and Stewart mobilize their voters, another GOP primary breaks out of some sort and there are no Democratic primaries -- all of which could happen -- turnout could be considerably higher this year, especially considering the county's continued population growth during the last four years.
Stewart successfully courted the Tea Party for support during the last two years and has strong ties to the anti-illegal immigration activist wing of the local GOP stemming from the controversial 2007 crackdown implemented by the board. Essentially, that means Stewart has a base of support that will actually turn out to vote as witnessed by congressional candidate Keith Fimian's (R) 2010 GOP primary victory over Pat Herrity.
Fimian, a Tea Party favorite in Prince William County who had the backing of Stewart, swept every precinct in the 11th district against Herrity, who was viewed as the more establishment candidate. Fimian went on to lose the general election by less than one point against Rep. Gerry Connolly (D).
A pro and con for Weir is that the strongest base of Republican support in Prince William is in the county's western end. That means a significant chunk of the GOP electorate is likely to know Weir already, but, according to Stewart, may already be in the current chairman's camp.
"My strongest support base is in the western end of Prince William County. I think western end voters appreciate what we've done on the budget in reducing the size of budget and the government," said Stewart, also mentioning the crack down on illegal immigration proved to be popular with Republicans on the western end. "I spend a lot of time coming (to) the western end of the county... I'm a chairman at large."
Weir may have a different group willing and able to support him against Stewart in independent and Democratic voters. Virginia does not have party registration, so any eligible voter can participate in primaries. The councilman said he would not actively court non-Republicans though he said he would not dissuade them from voting in the primary either.
"If they like the message, they may do it. Do I have any particular control over that? No, Corey eliminated that," Weir said, later adding, "Would I rather it be a strictly GOP thing? Yes."


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