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Black Tops Stirrup, FitzSimmonds; Candland Claims Gainesville Nod From GOP
Former Del. Dick Black (R) will have a chance to redeem his 2005 state House loss this fall as he secured a 113-vote win over Gainesville District Supervisor John Stirrup (R) Tuesday night in the 13th district state Senate Republican primary.
He joins four other GOP primary winners from western Prince William County races: Brentsville District Supervisor Wally Covington (R) defeated Bristow resident Jeanine Lawson (R) by 5 percent;
Gainesville District nominee Peter Candland (R) topped his closest rival, Gainesville District Planning Commissioner Martha Hendley, by nearly 10 points in a five-person field for the right to take on Ann Wheeler (D) in the fall;
David Ramadan (R) claimed the right to be the 87th House of Delegates district nominee over Jo Ann Chase by 11 points;
Miller Baker (R) bested Scott Martin (R) by better than a 3-to-1 margin for the 39th state Senate GOP nomination.
In other parts of Prince William, Coles District Supervisor Marty Nohe (R) also won against a nominal primary challenger as did former Del. Jeff Frederick (R) in the 36th state Senate district.
Like in 2007, Covington does not face a general election challenger. The rest of the GOP contenders in Prince William face Democratic opponents in the fall.
State Senate
Black won 38.81 percent of the vote to Stirrup's 37.42 percent, according to the Virginia State Board of Elections website, which reported turnout to be around 6.4 percent of total voters.
This seat is one of the battlegrounds for November that will go a long way in determining whether Democrats keep a majority in the state Senate or Republicans take control. The residents of the open seat generally favor Republican candidates in elections, making this seat a must-win for Republicans.
Iraq war veteran Shawn Mitchell (D) is set to face Black November 8.
Theoretically, the Broadlands resident should be able to neutralize some of Black's Loudoun County support. That means the Prince William precincts will be up for grabs and play a major role in determining the winner.
In the primary, Black's margin of victory likely came as a result of Bristow resident and Prince William deputy clerk of the court Bob FitzSimmonds (R) appearing on the ballot. He came in third place with 23.75 percent, essentially splitting part of the Prince William vote with Stirrup.
That said, the issues FitzSimmonds champions, such as railing against abortion, gay rights and taxes, are commonly associated with Black.
Stirrup's own views on those matters are similar if not identical. However, he's prominently known more for his stance on illegal immigration and development.
The narrative created in the primary about Stirrup is that he would be the most electable candidate in the fall.
This is the first time in Stirrup's electoral career that he has lost a match. He won two terms on the Board of County Supervisors before giving up what would have been an otherwise safe seat to run for state Senate.
Black won all but four precincts in Loudoun County while Stirrup won all but five in Prince William. The problem for Stirrup is that Prince William only accounted for only 43 percent percent of the vote while Loudoun claimed the other 57 percent.
That came despite the fact that Prince William registered twice the voter turnout at 11 percent in that race than Loudoun did at 5 percent.
A posting on Black's website stated, "Thank you to everyone who assisted with this monumental win to unite the Republican party. Now on to November!"
The loss for FitzSimmonds marks the fourth consecutive state Senate contest in which he has come up short. He lost two general elections to state Sen. Chuck Colgan (D) and lost the Republican primary for the same state Senate seat in 2003.
Neither Stirrup nor FitzSimmonds responded to voice mails left by The Times on Tuesday night.
Stirrup's loss did not sit well with Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R).
He heartily endorsed his friend and ideological ally over FitzSimmonds despite endorsing the concept of a FitzSimmonds candidacy before redistricting moved him out of the 29th state Senate district and into the 13th.
"Bob may have caused John Stirrup the election," said Stewart, disregarding the fact that FitzSimmonds entered the race first.
Prince William County Democratic Committee chairman Bruce Roemmelt also put Stirrup's defeat at the hands of FitzSimmonds.
"I think the votes that FitzSimmonds got was the dagger in Stirrup's heart," he said.
Stewart particularly fretted over the lack of potential state senators living in Prince William at the start of next year. He also expressed concern about Black's electability in the fall.
"Stirrup would have no problems in a general election. I fear that Dick Black will have some problems in the general election," said Stewart.
"I think it's just based upon the perception that he is ineffective or that he will be ineffective. I don't think it's necessarily true but it could be the perception and I think that's going to hurt us as a party in trying to win that seat which should be a Republican seat," he added.
Roemmelt explained that Mitchell can use Black's "baggage" against him.
During Black's tenure in the General Assembly, he received mockery, for instance, for distributing plastic fetus dolls to reporters during a debate about abortion.
"There's going to be no problem drawing a sharp difference between Shawn and Dick Black for us. I think that's going to be very powerful for us," said Roemmelt. "I think there's a real good possibility that people have woken up to what the Tea Party has given us and they're going to react to us."
Gainesville District
In the race to replace Stirrup on the Board of County Supervisors, Candland ran the most organized campaign out of the five candidates vying for the job.
Upon entry, he immediately contacted local media outlets, hired a local GOP insider to manage his campaign, presented professional-looking online content in press releases and on his website, and poured his own money into the race while soliciting more individual contributions from other donors than anyone else.
Quietly, the Republican establishment, such as Stewart, encouraged Candland without publicly making a scene out of it. At the same time, Candland's campaign team knocked on about 1,500 doors.
He successfully targeted Stirrup supporters and focused on reaching voters in residential subdivisions like Parks at Piedmont and Dominion Valley along with chunks of Manassas while Hendley relied on fellow controlled-growth supporters as her base.
Candland's team also placed volunteers at each precinct within the district on Election Day, giving him an advantage over each candidate.
"We were very disciplined throughout the campaign. We came up with a plan. We knew the money we wanted to hit, to raise for the campaign, and we stuck to it," said Candland.
He overcame contrast mailers from Hendley that noted Candland did not sign the Rural Crescent pledge, something he said he avoided due to ideological disagreements on other issues with the person behind it.
"I am a supporter of the Rural Crescent. To me, it is a settled issue," said Candland.
However, he added, "I'm not a no-growth person."
Candland advocates for what he called a "measured approach" that includes focus on repairing and improving roads.
Wheeler has signed the Rural Crescent pledge and the issue of growth is likely to play a key role in general election campaign.
According to Candland, "Ann is no slouch. She has a good following, she has raised a good amount of money."
"I think Ann is really well connected and she's going to work really, really hard," said Roemmelt. "I see an advantage for us because these other guys are so divided."
Stewart sees things differently.
"(Wheeler's) a nice person, but I really don't think she has a true grasp of the issues the county faces on transportation, education and public infrastructure in general," he said, repeatedly referring to Candland as "pro-business" while touting his conservative credentials.
Candland and Wheeler are set to square off for at least one debate this fall, hosted by the Committee of 100: October 26 at the Four Points by Sheraton hotel in Manassas.


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