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Immigration policy is a mixed bag, study shows
An independent study of Prince William's immigration policy has concluded that “It is possible for a local government to have an impact on its illegal immigration experience.”That conclusion is key, said study director Tom Guterbock, because the prevailing wisdom had always been that local governments couldn't do much about illegal immigration.
Guterbock, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Survey Research, conducted the study at the request of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors and he reported his results on Tuesday.
Supervisors had wanted to know if their 2008 policy had achieved its goals and if there had been any negative consequences.
The answer on both counts, is “somewhat,” Guterbock said.
He refused to characterize the county's policy as a “success,” saying only that it “had effects,” some of which were good and some of which were bad.
It has, however, lowered the number of illegal immigrants in the county.
Guterbock estimated that between 2,000 and 6,000 illegal immigrants left Prince William between 2006, when the debate over the policy began, and 2008, when it was implemented.
He said he attributes those numbers primarily to the hype and controversy over the policy, but added that the construction slowdown, foreclosure crisis and economic downturn also likely contributed.
As part of the larger study, Chris Koper of the Police Executive Research Forum investigated the county's crime rate and concluded that the “policy did not affect most types of crime and disorder” but that the number of serious assaults, especially in heavily hispanic areas, declined after the policy was announced.
When questioned about the study's conclusions, Guterbock acknowledged that “in a court of law, I don't think I've proved it beyond a reasonable doubt.” Because illegal immigrants are a “hidden population,” it's hard to know for sure how many there are, how many have left and how many have chosen not to come.
But he added that he is comfortable with the accuracy of the results and he noted that while the entire region's economy and housing markets went through similar downturns, Prince William saw a unique decline in some violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults.
But one of the county's big goals had been to save money by denying services to illegal immigrants and Guterbock said that didn't happen.
He also noted that there were some serious unintended consequences at the beginning, primarily that immigrants in general reported negative impressions about the county and police, damaging the county's reputation as an inclusive place to live and work.
Since the policy has been implemented, he said, those numbers have gone back up.
Guterbock credited Police Chief Charlie Deane with training officers, educating the community and implementing the policy smoothly. There have been no successful lawsuits alleging racial profiling.
Part of that is due to careful police work and part of it is due to the fact that the actual policy is very different from the one that was initially proposed.
The county's first suggestion was to check the immigration status of everyone when officers had reason to believe they might be here illegally.
They also wanted to deny services at libraries, parks and the landfill to illegal immigrants. That would likely have have required either checking the residency papers of every customer, or making judgment calls on who looks like they may be illegal.
That raised a huge outcry, prompting protests and boycotts from the left and vandalism and even a Ku Klux Klan appearance from the right.
Guterbock concluded that a lot of the immigrants who left did so during that outcry, before the law actually took effect.
In the end, supervisors changed the policy. It currently states only that police will check the immigration status of everyone who is arrested for another charge.
That policy, Guterbock said, has been well implemented and once the hype and controversy settled down, residents' perception of the police department has stabilized.
The entire report is available online, currently featured on the county government's home page at www.pwcgov.org.
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