PWC Dem party chairman discusses defeat
By Dan Roem
Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's (R) 18-point margin of victory over state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D-25th) not only served as a talking point for local and national political commentators, but it had a much more dramatic effect down-ballot.In the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general, Virginians showed their typical propensity for ticket-splitting. Democrats Jody Wagner and Del. Steve Shannon (D-35th) each outperformed Deeds against Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) and state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli (R-37th).
In the House of Delegates, the enthusiasm gap and lack of organization by Democrats proved to be costly.
Take Democrat John Bell, who lost to Del. Bob Marshall (R-13th) by just under 23 percentage points in western Prince William and lower Loudoun County.
“Bell's campaign ran the best campaign we've had in the 13th probably since Bob Marshall was first elected," said Prince William Democratic Committee chairman Pete Frisbie. "Bell ran a great campaign. More mail, more doors, more phone calls: they did everything they were supposed to do. But the headwinds were so strong, it dragged him down."
Only one Republican incumbent lost a re-election bid in the state: scandal-tarred Newport News Del. Phil Hamilton (R-93rd).
Democrat Luke Torian's open-seat win over Dumfries Town Council member Rafael Lopez (R) in the 52nd district came in an area that is heavily concentrated with minority voters.
"He had a great (get-out-the-vote) program," said Frisbie, mentioning that "it's really demographics more than anything else."
"Torian connected with folks out there and really energized his folks to come out," he said of the preacher from Mt. Zion Baptist Church.
Across the state, a look at absentee numbers shows Republicans outmatched Democrats in an operation where the political parties can directly grab guaranteed votes.
In fact, the Republicans' superior absentee program cost Democrats at least one seat in the House of Delegates and, in close elections, often provided Republican candidates with margins strong enough to prevent Democrats from winning at the ballot box.
Ten seats switched party control in the election, with the GOP picking up eight and the Democrats two.
However, Republican candidates as a whole took a majority of absentee ballots in both of those districts, including Hamilton's.
What this shows is Republicans more effectively collected early votes than Democrats did, except in rural Russell County, where Democrats bizarrely racked up huge absentee margins while being trounced three-to-one at the polls.
That cost Democrats dearly in Prince William's 51st District, where Rich Anderson (R) defeated Del. Paul Nichols (D). Anderson won at the polls by only 12 votes on Election Day, which easily could have triggered a recount if requested by Nichols. However, Anderson crushed Nichols in absentee ballots by 257 votes.
Nichols and Anderson each won seven precincts on Election Day, while McDonnell won nine. That meant a significant number of voters split their ticket between McDonnell and Nichols.
If Nichols turned out one more voter for himself in each precinct, then he would have had a majority going into the absentee count.
"I'll be honest: the Republican state party did an excellent job with the absentee ballot program. I know Bob McDonnell spent close to $1 million for his absentee ballot program. It was a huge advantage for Republicans there," said Frisbie.
The state Democratic party sent out absentee ballots to registered voters under the age of 30, figuring they would be able to secure a majority of younger voters.
In the end, that voting block made up only 10 percent of the Virginia electorate. That is half of what it was in 2008, when Barack Obama carried the commonwealth on his way to winning the presidency.
"The difference ... is this year is the state (Democratic) party did not run the same program. They were late getting their pieces out," said Frisbie, who is undecided about whether he will return to the chairmanship next year as he is planning to start a family.
He added, "Along with a number of other things that happened this year, it seemed like they were always running a few weeks behind in terms of where they should have been this year."
In the 2010 midterm election, Democrats will be defending three congressional seats they picked up in Virginia last year, as well as three long-time incumbent seats. One of those new seats is held by Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) in the 11th District, which includes western Prince William County.
Frisbie said Connolly (D) will need to concentrate on minority groups and not leave anything to chance next year against returning 2008 foe Keith Fimian (R).
"Frankly, what this election shows is we have to hit every block of voters everywhere in the county if we want to win," said Frisbie.