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In wake of election, PW legislators assess red-to-blue shift
Democrats have slowly made gains in Prince William County during the last four election cycles, dating back to 2005 when then-Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D) carried the county during his successful run for governor.
But until this year, Republicans at least held their own in the area.
Last year, for example, the GOP maintained its 6-2 edge on the Board of County Supervisors and all four of their incumbent delegates won re-election.
An open seat in the 51st district switched from red to blue with a victory by Paul Nichols and although George Barker lost the Prince William portion of the 39th state Senate district, he managed to rack up a large enough margin of victory in Fairfax County to beat incumbent Republican Sen. Jay O’Brien.
That was it for Democratic gains.
This year, however, President-elect Barack Obama (D) and Sen.-elect Mark Warner (D) trounced their GOP opposition across the county by 16 and 28 percentage points, respectively.
Even someone like Rep.-elect Gerry Connolly (D), the Fairfax Board of County Supervisors chairman who has clashed so often with his Prince William counterpart Corey Stewart (R), won by nine points in Prince William.
So why is Prince William bluing?
Opinions vary, but there are at least some hard facts.
According to the United States census bureau, the population of the county increased 27.3 percent between 2000 and 2006.
That’s about 77,000 people in just six years.
The most notable influx of new people into the area have come from the Hispanic and Latino communities. Those groups made up 19.1 percent of the county population in 2006, almost 13 percent higher than the rest of the commonwealth.
At the ballot box, Hispanics broke for Obama by a 2:1 margin nationwide. According to the 2006 estimate, African Americans made up just shy of 20 percent of the county populace. That group overwhelming supported Obama by at least 90 points.
“You go back 30 or 40 years, Prince William County was very southern and very not diverse,” said Barker, whose district includes precincts along the county’s eastern edge.
After a town hall meeting with Nichols this past Saturday at Woodbridge High School, Barker pointed out that Prince William voters, like those across the country, were more concerned with the economy this time around rather than illegal immigration.
According to western Prince William Delegate Bob Marshall (R-13th), however, Republicans are also losing because of their own leadership.
Marshall ran against former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) for the Republican nomination for Senate this past June. He lost the race by a closer margin than expected after running to Gilmore’s right on issues like abortion, taxes and illegal immigration.
“Gilmore was never going to win that race and in fact, he didn’t get any volunteers because he didn’t inspire people on these tough social issues. And the race was then about who was the better governor,” said Marshall.
He directed his sharpest criticism however at Speaker of the House Bill Howell (R-28th).
“Bill Howell as speaker made Mark Warner what he is,” said Marshall, referring to the former Democratic governor who crushed Gilmore at the ballot box to become senator-elect.
Howell did not respond to requests for comments by press time on Monday.
Marshall particularly blasted Howell for allowing Warner's budget, which raised taxes, to pass through the House Finance Committee and then win approval on the House floor.
Howell also pushed last year for a limit on the number of bills each delegate can introduce.
Marshall routinely introduces scores of bills each session and has feverishly opposed that change. He maintains a limit hurts citizens' ability to seek relief for their problems and it also shifts power to the Democratically-controlled state Senate.
The Senate has no such rule limiting legislation.
“How dumb is that?” asked Marshall. “If this is the Republican leadership, they’re going to get replaced and they’re going to take other people down with us.”
House Democrats like Nichols, who opposed the legislation limit, may be able to use that to their advantage as they run for re-election in 2009.
That gives Democrats an issue to run on at a time when the local party is better organized than it has been in recent years.
Barker pointed out that the local Democratic committee increased its presence in the area by opening four offices and that it kept staffers and volunteers engaged by hosting social events this election cycle.
“Part of what I found was, the night that Obama gave his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, there was a gathering at Brittany’s restaurant [in Woodbridge] and the room was absolutely packed, they were so excited,” he said.
He reckoned that if politics is fun for people, they may be more inclined to help out in upcoming elections.
“Well, I think part of the good thing is once people have gotten involved, they’re much more likely to stay involved,” said Barker. “So you try to keep a lot of the people who were active this year involved next year.”
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