Tuesday was supposed to be the deadline to advertise a tax rate in order to hold a public hearing on April 7. Since the board members couldn't agree, the public hearing was supposed to be canceled. Instead, county officials announced late Wednesday afternoon that a special meeting has been called for next Tuesday, March 25, giving supervisors one more shot at a consensus.

If the supervisors can't agree on an advertisement, they can't legally hold the public hearing, and they can't legally adopt a budget.

If the board doesn't adopt a tax rate by its deadline, County Attorney Ross Horton said that there can be no real estate tax.

"There will be no money coming in. There will be no money to go forward. We would have to shut it down," he said.

Officials said if that happens, they could move leftover money around to keep some public-safety workers on the job for a short period of time, but that the county government and all of its services would otherwise essentially cease to function.

Faced with that prospect, the supervisors took several more stabs at a preliminary tax rate on Tuesday but still couldn't reach a consensus. After two short discussion s on the issue, they gave up and went home.

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At issue is a law that requires the supervisors to advertise a public hearing at least a week in advance. Since the public hearing is about the tax rate, the advertisement must state the maximum tax rate that is being considered. Once that advertisement runs, the supervisors can adopt a lower rate, but not a higher one.

The public hearing had been scheduled for April 7 but Tuesday was supposed to be the board's last meeting until April 1 so Tuesday was the deadline. Next week's special meeting, however, means they'll get one more shot.

Tax rate

But after three weeks of attempts, the supervisors were no closer Tuesday to coming up with a rate to advertise.

On one side, several supervisors have signed a pledge promising not to raise taxes beyond a certain rate. Supervisor John Stirrup (R-Gainesville) and Chairman Corey Stewart (R-at large) are sticking with a maximum 96.8-cent tax rate, which would increase the average homeowner's real estate tax bill by about 3.3 percent.

However, that rate gives both the county government and the school board significantly less than they have planned for. Stewart and Stirrup have voted against every higher proposal.

On the other side, several are refusing to put a hole in the school board's budget or to leave themselves without wiggle room later in the process.

Supervisors Maureen Caddigan (R-Dumfries), Frank Principi (D-Woodbridge) and John Jenkins (D-Neabsco) have all voted in favor of a $1.03 rate, which increases tax bills by about 10 percent but which fully funds the proposed school budget.

They've also supported the $1.01 rate, which is an 8-percent tax increase. However, none of them have been willing to vote for anything lower.

Somewhere closer to the center are supervisors Mike May (R-Occoquan), Marty Nohe (R-Coles) and Wally Covington (R-Brentsville).

Covington and May have supported the 96.8-cent rate and a compromise 99-cent rate. On Tuesday, May suggested a $1 rate, which is the only rate Nohe has yet supported.

But with two supervisors who won't go higher than 96.8 cents and three who won't go lower than $1.01, a compromise is still a ways off. Five votes are needed for approval.

What comes next

And that's still just to advertise a maximum rate.

Next month, the supervisors will start working on the budget in earnest, and by the end of April, they will hammer out and vote on an actual tax rate.

Theoretically.

Every week that passes without an advertisement costs the county money and brings the government one step closer to a financial disaster, County Executive Craig Gerhart warned Tuesday.

And the appearance of financial instability could affect the county's bond rating.

"We have to start doing some things to prepare ourselves for the fact that we won't have a budget," he said. "That's pretty dire stuff."